Research

#1. Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster?
American Economic Review: Insights, December 2020 (Lead article)

Coverage: AEA Chart of the Week, LSE Business Review, Phys.org, Mother Jones, DNA

Abstract:

A better understanding of the determinants of idea/knowledge production remains critical for long-run growth. Towards this end, this paper establishes two results using data from the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO). First, individuals who excelled in teenage years are especially capable of advancing the knowledge frontier. Second, such talented individuals born in poorer countries are systematically less likely to engage in knowledge production. IMO participants from low-income countries produce 34% fewer publications and 56% fewer cites than equally talented rich-country counterparts. Policies to encourage talented youth to pursue scientific careers–especially those from poorer countries–could advance the knowledge frontier faster.

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#2. What Drives Innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D  
Journal of Health Economics, March 2022

Coverage: Brookings, Hutchins Roundup, WTO Webinar, IZA World of Labor

Abstract:

To examine the drivers of innovation, this paper studies the global R&D effort to fight the deadliest diseases and presents four results. We find: (1) global pharmaceutical R&D activity—measured by clinical trials—typically follows the 'law of diminishing effort': i.e. the elasticity of R&D effort with respect to market size is about 0.5 in the cross-section of diseases; (2) the R&D response to COVID-19 has been a major exception to this law, with the number of COVID-19 trials being 7 to 20 times greater than that implied by its market size; (3) the aggregate short-term elasticity of science and innovation can be very large, as demonstrated by aggregate flow of clinical trials increasing by 38% in 2020, with limited crowding out of trials for non-COVID diseases; and (4) public institutions and government-led incentives were a key driver of the COVID-19 R&D effort---with public research institutions accounting for 70 percent of all COVID-19 clinical trials globally and being 10 percentage points more likely to conduct a COVID-19 trial relative to private firms. Overall, while economists are naturally in favor of market size as a driving force for innovation (i.e. "if the market size is sufficiently large then innovation will happen"), our work suggests that scaling up global innovation may require a broader perspective on the drivers of innovation---including early-stage incentives, non-monetary incentives, and public institutions.

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#3. Why U.S. Immigration Matters for the Global Advancement of Science
Research Policy, January 2023. Open access final version here.

Coverage: Marginal Revolution, Noahpinion, Finance & Development, IMF Podcast

Abstract:

This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network— representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries— even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers – by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent – could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42%. We conclude by discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.

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#4. POLICY PAPER: Strengthening UK Foreign Talent Policy
Written Evidence, The House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, September. 2022

Abstract:

The U.K. has the potential to attract a significant share of global talent due to the reputation of its universities, its stable institutional environment, and the ubiquity of the English language. However, to fully leverage that potential, the U.K. would need to implement a richer set of policies going beyond special visas to include scholarships and other tools. Making U.K. a global talent hub would help key industries (such as finance, academia, and tech), boost economic growth, and advance global innovation and science.

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#5. Top Talent, Elite Colleges, and Migration: Evidence from the Indian Institutes of Technology.
Journal of Development Economics, Forthcoming.

Coverage: The Economist,  Forbes,  Hindustan Times, University World News, Office Chai, QZ.com   

Abstract:

We study migration in the right tail of the talent distribution using a novel dataset of Indian high school students taking the Joint Entrance Exam (JEE), a college entrance exam used for admission to the prestigious Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT). We find a high incidence of migration after students complete college: among the top 1000 scorers on the exam, 36% have migrated abroad, rising to 62% for the top 100 scorers. We next document that students who attended the original “Top 5” Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) were 5 percentage points more likely to migrate for graduate school compared to equally talented students who studied in other institutions. We explore two mechanisms for these patterns: signaling, for which we study migration after one university suddenly gained the IIT designation; and alumni networks, using information on the location of IIT alumni in U.S. computer science departments. 

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#6. POLICY PAPER: Embracing the Gift of Global Talent.
IMF Finance & Development, Spring 2021.

Coverage: Podcast

Abstract:

The pandemic and restrictive immigration policies recently have added new barriers to academic migration. These deprive talented individuals of the opportunity to nurture their abilities and compel many to settle for an inferior educational environment that is not suited to their preferences or strengths. And humanity is deprived of countless potential discoveries. Our findings suggest that timely action by global policymakers and the scientific community is needed to ensure equal opportunities for talented individuals and to accelerate the global advancement of science and knowledge.

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